Swing vs. Scalping: Who Really Wins?

In the world of trading, data from industry sources often paints a picture that can be misleading for individual traders. Brokers and trading platforms promote high success rates, particularly for more frequent traders like scalpers, but the reality is often far more complex. In this post, we'll break down some of the numbers presented by industry sources and contrast them with independent research to give you a clearer perspective.

Industry-Sourced Success Rates

According to various industry sources, here’s what the reported success rates look like:

Scalper (Under 5-minute operator):

• Success Rate: 50-70%
• Reasoning:
  • High trade frequency.
  • Small price movements.
  • Greater liquidity.
  • Short-term trend strategies.

Swing Trader:

• Success Rate: 30-50%
• Reasoning:
  • Lower trade frequency.
  • Larger price movements.
  • Greater exposure to risk.
  • Medium to long-term trend strategies.

At first glance, it seems like scalping offers a better chance of success. More frequent trades, combined with the liquidity of short-term moves, are presented as reasons why scalpers may be more successful. But should you trust these numbers at face value?

Conflicts of Interest in Industry Data

These industry-reported numbers may not be as reliable as they seem. Several potential conflicts of interest come into play when brokers and trading platforms promote certain types of trading:

1. Platform Promotion: Platforms often highlight strategies that lead to more frequent trades, as these generate higher commissions for brokers.
2. Attracting Active Traders: Scalpers tend to make more trades, and brokers benefit from the higher transaction volume.
3. Risk Policies: Some platforms may structure their risk management tools and incentives to favor short-term trading.

What Independent Sources Say

When we look at independent, non-conflicted sources, a different picture starts to emerge. Independent academic studies suggest that swing traders may actually perform better than scalpers, for several reasons:

1. Lower Trade Frequency: Swing traders typically make fewer trades, which reduces the impact of commission fees and spreads on their returns.
2. Focus on Trends and Fundamentals: Swing traders often use technical analysis and fundamental factors to capture larger price moves, improving their potential for larger gains.
3. Better Risk Management: With more time between trades, swing traders tend to employ more disciplined risk management practices.
4. Less Stress and Fatigue: Scalping requires constant focus, which can lead to poor decision-making due to stress or fatigue.

Independent Studies: Swing Traders vs. Scalpers

Let’s take a look at some independent studies that tell a different story from the industry narrative:

1. University of California Study (2019): Found that swing traders had an average annual return of 12.6%, compared to 6.8% for scalpers.
2. Journal of Trading Report (2018): Showed a success rate of 55.6% for swing traders, compared to 41.4% for scalpers.
3. QuantConnect Report (2020): Strategies based on swing trading delivered an average annual return of 15.6%, outperforming scalping strategies.

These studies highlight how swing trading can offer better risk-reward profiles compared to the fast-paced, high-stress world of scalping.

Key Takeaways for Individual Traders

The key lesson here is not to fall for marketing hype or industry reports that may push you towards a specific style of trading, especially one that benefits the platforms you trade on. Here’s what you should keep in mind:

1. Be Critical: Always question the sources of information. Industry success rates might be skewed by conflicts of interest.
2. Independent Research: Seek out independent studies, academic journals, and unbiased platforms to get a clearer picture.
3. Understand Your Goals: Both swing trading and scalping come with risks. Choose a trading style that fits your goals, risk tolerance, and lifestyle.
4. Focus on Long-Term Growth: While scalping may seem exciting, swing trading tends to offer better long-term results by focusing on fewer, higher-quality trades with disciplined risk management.

Recommended Resources for Objective Information

1. Academic Journals: Journal of Trading, Journal of Financial Markets.
2. University Studies: Seek out financial studies from universities like Stanford or Berkeley.
3. Independent Platforms: QuantConnect, Backtrader.
4. Specialized Blogs: TradingView, Investopedia.

In conclusion, while the industry may promote fast-paced trading with promises of high success rates, the reality for individual traders is often quite different. Take the time to educate yourself and base your decisions on unbiased, independent information to improve your chances of success.

P.S. Stay tuned for my next post, where I'll dive deeper into the topic, going beyond the potential use of misleading advertising. I'll demonstrate, using statistical methods—specifically, a covariance analysis—why larger time frames, like those used in swing trading, are mathematically more favorable for individual traders. Don't miss it!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading is risky, and you should always conduct thorough research or consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.